Posted On: 03/12/2015 9:44:57 PM
Post# of 8059
Good to hear buddy-thought maybe i was the only one still holding
2097190635_ScreenShot15yrironchart.jpg
price of iron was same Feb 2014 as it was when the Ilia sailed May 2013- ca 124/ton
price was 10-14/ton til 2002 then rose to ca 31 /ton before big jump in 2008 to 60/ton
the jump TO 60/ton is what caused every crackhead to come out of the woodwork and start illegal mines because the profit at 60/ton was so enormous
now many miners complain they cant make money at 60/ton- why not????? plus they are ignoring the premiums for above bench and lump
why cant they make money at 60/ton now when they were making huge profit at 60/ton in 2008-2009????
especially now that oil is low
ship prices arent any higher now- many ships rent below cost due to long term shipping glut
interest rates have been as low as they can go since ca 2008-2009
many times i posted a ca 2009-2010 chart of junior miner production costs showing a median cost of about 12.50/ton -which made sense since iron was only 10-14 til 2002 -and some miners had negative cost due to premiums for ore above the 62% benchmark
12.50/ton plus 10 shipping for Panamax recently plus trucking would still be a good profit
under Bob production cost was below 10/ton-Bob was very cost conscious -a good mechanic and got good deals on major equipment- like the cat 375 ex which grajekk said would be 1 million new-we saw the pics as they rebuilt that
in 2009 CWRN said they could make a profit at 45/ton
so I think the price drop is just an excuse for many miners
Now when price jumped from 60 all the way to 191.90 Feb 2011 big and small miners went all out crazy on costs on very marginal low % etc deposits far from port, which caused some big boys like CLF to have all in costs of 120 for their Canadian operations-since shut down
and Chinas domestic mines average only 15-20% iron-as low as 4% (TV doc)-so agmetalminer said in 2010-2011 that those chinese domestic costs of 150/ton set the base level for iron prices- all the prognosticators have been wrong
but Bob very carefully chose Baja 14 for low costs-only 55 miles from port on paved highways-all but ca 5.5 miles of that is highway 101 -Bajas interstate- and until 1.5 years ago Mexico's labor costs were less than China's.
LatinAmerica still has some of the lowest mine costs
small miners like Baja 14 dont have huge overhead- or huge white collar staffs w multimillion dollar salaries or huge transportation costs-some big mines have billions in railroad costs alone
so even if we assume production costs of 15/ton and add 10/ton Panamax and 7/ton trucking w low oil prices- thats only 32/ton -add 10/ton for other unknown costs - some of which are not part of cost of pro) and the new Mex 7.5% EBITDA royalty fees (so another 4.50/ton) and the total is 46.50/ton -shipping and trucking are now lower than they were under Bob
so if we are talking only about the 58% sinter fines waste byproduct which would have to be magnetically screened for 3-4 months to further upgrade to 60% iron content (because they have-as a byproduct already been screened ca twice- which bring only 85% of reg iron-even at same ore%- then there would not be much profit)
but if-to be continued
2097190635_ScreenShot15yrironchart.jpg
price of iron was same Feb 2014 as it was when the Ilia sailed May 2013- ca 124/ton
price was 10-14/ton til 2002 then rose to ca 31 /ton before big jump in 2008 to 60/ton
the jump TO 60/ton is what caused every crackhead to come out of the woodwork and start illegal mines because the profit at 60/ton was so enormous
now many miners complain they cant make money at 60/ton- why not????? plus they are ignoring the premiums for above bench and lump
why cant they make money at 60/ton now when they were making huge profit at 60/ton in 2008-2009????
especially now that oil is low
ship prices arent any higher now- many ships rent below cost due to long term shipping glut
interest rates have been as low as they can go since ca 2008-2009
many times i posted a ca 2009-2010 chart of junior miner production costs showing a median cost of about 12.50/ton -which made sense since iron was only 10-14 til 2002 -and some miners had negative cost due to premiums for ore above the 62% benchmark
12.50/ton plus 10 shipping for Panamax recently plus trucking would still be a good profit
under Bob production cost was below 10/ton-Bob was very cost conscious -a good mechanic and got good deals on major equipment- like the cat 375 ex which grajekk said would be 1 million new-we saw the pics as they rebuilt that
in 2009 CWRN said they could make a profit at 45/ton
so I think the price drop is just an excuse for many miners
Now when price jumped from 60 all the way to 191.90 Feb 2011 big and small miners went all out crazy on costs on very marginal low % etc deposits far from port, which caused some big boys like CLF to have all in costs of 120 for their Canadian operations-since shut down
and Chinas domestic mines average only 15-20% iron-as low as 4% (TV doc)-so agmetalminer said in 2010-2011 that those chinese domestic costs of 150/ton set the base level for iron prices- all the prognosticators have been wrong
but Bob very carefully chose Baja 14 for low costs-only 55 miles from port on paved highways-all but ca 5.5 miles of that is highway 101 -Bajas interstate- and until 1.5 years ago Mexico's labor costs were less than China's.
LatinAmerica still has some of the lowest mine costs
small miners like Baja 14 dont have huge overhead- or huge white collar staffs w multimillion dollar salaries or huge transportation costs-some big mines have billions in railroad costs alone
so even if we assume production costs of 15/ton and add 10/ton Panamax and 7/ton trucking w low oil prices- thats only 32/ton -add 10/ton for other unknown costs - some of which are not part of cost of pro) and the new Mex 7.5% EBITDA royalty fees (so another 4.50/ton) and the total is 46.50/ton -shipping and trucking are now lower than they were under Bob
so if we are talking only about the 58% sinter fines waste byproduct which would have to be magnetically screened for 3-4 months to further upgrade to 60% iron content (because they have-as a byproduct already been screened ca twice- which bring only 85% of reg iron-even at same ore%- then there would not be much profit)
but if-to be continued
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