Posted On: 11/10/2014 3:44:28 PM
Post# of 30070
I thought Jason's 1 million revenue estimate was for Q1 2015, not the entire year. He has said in the past that it will take about 6 months for pharmas doing clinical trials to get hooked up with LymPro, and that revenues should ramp up substantially after that.
My understanding is that CLIA approval will be almost immediate after the launch. So I would anticipate some revenue from individuals seeing their doctors about alzheimers starting modestly in Q1 but also ramping up.
My guess by quarters: Q1- 1 million; Q2- 3 million; Q3-8 million; Q4- 18 million. That equals about 30 million in 2015 revenue. I guess we have to pay ICON some of that.
If someone believed we'd get 30 million in revenue in 2015 and multiplied that by 8 to get a present net value for LymPro...... that would equal 240 million in market cap value. Based on about 800 million outstanding shares...... that translates to .30 cents pps value in pre-RS numbers. I think I'd expect that in Q1 2015.
But that is from LymPro alone. Lets just give Lympro .20 cents value in January 2015. Eltoprazine starting their phase 2b trial should add another 40 million of market cap value which translates to another .05 cents. Plus, there is the MANF orphan, another .05 cents.
I add that up to .30 cents by February 1, 2015. I actually believe this is very possible! Just hearing the first few pharmas signing up to use Lympro will jump start our stock price....without even mentioning the revenue. We are undervalued. We just need a little confidence building, which hearing that pharmas using LymPro will do for us.
My understanding is that CLIA approval will be almost immediate after the launch. So I would anticipate some revenue from individuals seeing their doctors about alzheimers starting modestly in Q1 but also ramping up.
My guess by quarters: Q1- 1 million; Q2- 3 million; Q3-8 million; Q4- 18 million. That equals about 30 million in 2015 revenue. I guess we have to pay ICON some of that.
If someone believed we'd get 30 million in revenue in 2015 and multiplied that by 8 to get a present net value for LymPro...... that would equal 240 million in market cap value. Based on about 800 million outstanding shares...... that translates to .30 cents pps value in pre-RS numbers. I think I'd expect that in Q1 2015.
But that is from LymPro alone. Lets just give Lympro .20 cents value in January 2015. Eltoprazine starting their phase 2b trial should add another 40 million of market cap value which translates to another .05 cents. Plus, there is the MANF orphan, another .05 cents.
I add that up to .30 cents by February 1, 2015. I actually believe this is very possible! Just hearing the first few pharmas signing up to use Lympro will jump start our stock price....without even mentioning the revenue. We are undervalued. We just need a little confidence building, which hearing that pharmas using LymPro will do for us.
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