Posted On: 09/15/2014 1:35:15 PM
Post# of 30066
The mistake many small Bio-Tech investors make when dealing with pre-clinical drugs is the value assumption they make about pre-clinical milestones, such as animal data and orphan designations. They are nice and have a positive impact on the stock, but not much.
It really boils down to money. Wall Street values a company based on how soon it will be profitable and how profitable it will be! Until MANF gets deeper into human clinical trials, or gets a pre-clinical partnership, it is going to disappoint investors in terms of how much value it adds to the stock price. A couple of MANF orphan designations this December will help us some, but not a lot!
Eltoprazine is a question mark for me. A phase 2b isn't shabby, but it doesn't seem to have brought much value to AMBS yet. When will it? I would think if it gave out positive interim data several months after the trial started, that would give us a pop. Maybe by April or May of 2015 we might get some interim data? But I doubt Eltoprazine is going to help our pps in time to up list.
LymPro revenue is the key. It will be light in Q1 2015, but will increase every quarter after that. Without a JV Partner and up front money it is hard to say how fast Lympro revenue will ramp up and drive up our stock price. Not getting that Lympro JV partner now and gleaning from Gerald on the CC that we might not get one for another year....is what pulled the rug out from under me regarding my near term optimism for the stock price.
18 months from now we will be kicking butt, but I'm not sure when we get out of the .10 to .20 cent range?
It really boils down to money. Wall Street values a company based on how soon it will be profitable and how profitable it will be! Until MANF gets deeper into human clinical trials, or gets a pre-clinical partnership, it is going to disappoint investors in terms of how much value it adds to the stock price. A couple of MANF orphan designations this December will help us some, but not a lot!
Eltoprazine is a question mark for me. A phase 2b isn't shabby, but it doesn't seem to have brought much value to AMBS yet. When will it? I would think if it gave out positive interim data several months after the trial started, that would give us a pop. Maybe by April or May of 2015 we might get some interim data? But I doubt Eltoprazine is going to help our pps in time to up list.
LymPro revenue is the key. It will be light in Q1 2015, but will increase every quarter after that. Without a JV Partner and up front money it is hard to say how fast Lympro revenue will ramp up and drive up our stock price. Not getting that Lympro JV partner now and gleaning from Gerald on the CC that we might not get one for another year....is what pulled the rug out from under me regarding my near term optimism for the stock price.
18 months from now we will be kicking butt, but I'm not sure when we get out of the .10 to .20 cent range?
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