Howiesjules, that is an excellent question, but also a very difficult one to answer; I think there could many answers and it is rather speculative to guess what the saturation of this kind of product line could be now and into the future. There could also be the potential for overseas sales as well as in the USA. If just looking at the USA for now, then looking at just California, there are approximately 38M people. I think a rather conservative estimate of the smokers is probably like 5% of the population, just a total guess.
http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2010/12/20/n...ecord-low/
The article above seems to suggest about a 7% rate. So if we assume about 2M smokers in California, I think it could be rather safe to guesstimate that about 1/4th of those smokers would be into vaping MJ or nicotine or other plant or oil extracts via the Vapor Inhaler; so about 500k potential customer base. If marketing eventually gets to say half of those and about 10% of those actually at some point finally purchase a Vapor Inhaler, then we could imagine that about 25k owners of the VI virtually every year in my opinion. This would bring in revenues just in California alone at almost $2.5M. Different states will have different sized potential customer bases and demographics. Denver I think would be a HUGE market. Some other states I am not so sure. I think overall, even with very conservative guesses, I would think that the USA market is close to potentially being a $1B market for the VI. Just for simplicity you could imagine about double those sales if the VI was sold outside of the USA. So perhaps $2B in revenues per year is possible for RFMK. I am just throwing some wild speculative numbers out there to start the conversation, I have absolutely no clue really though and I dont think anyone does have a good estimate because there has never been a product like the VI and now with MJ legalization sweeping the country, we are living in very interesting times, especially for the potential for the MJ vaping market. If you imagine RFMK trading on the NASDAQ at a market P/E of about 10 and taking in about $500M per year in earnings then we could be looking at a stock trading at about $3.40/share with the current share structure. Who knows how many years it would take for them to ramp up production and sales to that level though, even assuming if they could capture that much market share but its fun to imagine. Also I think in that scenario the days of a 1.5B O/S would be long gone. I would imagine some share buybacks along the way which would leave probably more like a 500M O/S which would mean a share price more like at about $10. First things first though, let us all see that 10K, and then we can discuss what is next for RFMK, for now we still have a few critical corp hurdles to overcome.
Cheers
$RFMK
