Posted On: 07/26/2014 7:48:39 PM
Post# of 8059
dont see any new ships in the spotty ship sites = re Brads comment below,if hes waiting for ore price to recover before shipping,he obviously is not concerned about possible degradation of inventory
the mine does have an ideal desert climate for iron- maybe 7-8" annual precip in the lee of the coastal mountain range w low humidity,whereas brazil and australia get rained out for 3 weeks at a time
3 yrs ago juniors were averaging ca 12.50 production cost -posted chart many times- iron was only 10-14/ton til 2002 (w shipping apparently paid by buyer) , 45 in 2008, CWRN pro cost was probably below 10 (and if they sell byproducts would have a negative pro cost as several juniors did just from premium ore alone )
and CWRN could put iron in china for maybe 45/ton- i've given details many times- less overhead than the big 3 w their billions in railroads and plants high paid execs etc and they can put iron in china for 40-60
Brad paid for existing and future inventory -existing inv as of june 2012-andthey continued producing under bob til oct 2012,and by all reports brads been producing- included over 135,000 tons fert whose price should not fluctuate like iron so dont know what they are doing w that, plus another 65000 tons plus sinter byproduct-under traditional ratios that would mean 2.5 million tons main product! - see previous posts- so ratios obviously changed, but should still be a large amount of inventory, which is still good profit at these prices- 10-14/ton til 2002!!!
they bought the huge HIGHLY customized extra tough trommel to process the byproducts- posted pic many times
so Brad must be confident prices will improve IF thats what he's waiting for -Navial website says they have all permits
and there's been enough time to negotiate a longterm contract tied to spot price at whatever discount
Given Brads comment "and whether the price of Iron Ore recovers",
if we dont see a ship soon the most likely common sense scenario is that once any extra audits were over this year he may be waiting for prices to recover.
But the consensus of holders, including myself, is get the iron out the door because although short term prices may recover the unrestrained insatiable greed fight for greater market share among the big 4 does not bode well for prices long term
present prices are below margin costs for many, esp in China, but as long as the big 3 -not fortescue's margin costs- can put iron in China for 40-60/ton, Bingo is probably right about 70-90/ton prices before 150 again.
the mine does have an ideal desert climate for iron- maybe 7-8" annual precip in the lee of the coastal mountain range w low humidity,whereas brazil and australia get rained out for 3 weeks at a time
3 yrs ago juniors were averaging ca 12.50 production cost -posted chart many times- iron was only 10-14/ton til 2002 (w shipping apparently paid by buyer) , 45 in 2008, CWRN pro cost was probably below 10 (and if they sell byproducts would have a negative pro cost as several juniors did just from premium ore alone )
and CWRN could put iron in china for maybe 45/ton- i've given details many times- less overhead than the big 3 w their billions in railroads and plants high paid execs etc and they can put iron in china for 40-60
Brad paid for existing and future inventory -existing inv as of june 2012-andthey continued producing under bob til oct 2012,and by all reports brads been producing- included over 135,000 tons fert whose price should not fluctuate like iron so dont know what they are doing w that, plus another 65000 tons plus sinter byproduct-under traditional ratios that would mean 2.5 million tons main product! - see previous posts- so ratios obviously changed, but should still be a large amount of inventory, which is still good profit at these prices- 10-14/ton til 2002!!!
they bought the huge HIGHLY customized extra tough trommel to process the byproducts- posted pic many times
so Brad must be confident prices will improve IF thats what he's waiting for -Navial website says they have all permits
and there's been enough time to negotiate a longterm contract tied to spot price at whatever discount
Given Brads comment "and whether the price of Iron Ore recovers",
if we dont see a ship soon the most likely common sense scenario is that once any extra audits were over this year he may be waiting for prices to recover.
But the consensus of holders, including myself, is get the iron out the door because although short term prices may recover the unrestrained insatiable greed fight for greater market share among the big 4 does not bode well for prices long term
present prices are below margin costs for many, esp in China, but as long as the big 3 -not fortescue's margin costs- can put iron in China for 40-60/ton, Bingo is probably right about 70-90/ton prices before 150 again.
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