I based it on recent history. Look at what happened this past Jan/Feb. Looked like we were going to soar, only to have the MMs continually slap down the price until we were back to .0001-.0002. 

The price on Hollund would be nice right now if it weren't for the constant price depression. Until that lets up, I'm convinced this is the range we'll stay in. Is this what I want? Nope. Is this what will happen? Certainly looks that way to me.