Still watching for an SLV short entry

SLV has enjoyed a magnificent rally since early June running from roughly 25.60 to it's current level of 33.48. This roughly 31% gain in this precious/industrial metal came ahead of the QE 3 announcement, which many of you know is dilutive to the US dollar, therefore inflationary and to the benefit of commodities and precious metals.

Take a look at last week's candle formation though, it is a doji candle at a 38.2 retrace right near the 52 week high just about a week after the QE announcement. Why did it not head higher to say 37.5 on news? The likely answer is that the event is baked into the cake. Now, SLV is extended into a major resistance area, and giving a doji candle wich could indicate the top of the move.

A few weeks ago I was about to enter a short trade, but was very cautious because this thing still could move a little bit higher. Although I am still of the mindset that this thing needs to pull back, at least to the 30 dollar area in my opinion, I have been short squeezed enough to know that I would rather let the chart tell me when it has put in a high.

I will be watching the daily and intraday tape for signals on when the big boys are looking to get out, and will jump on board with them. This could come in the form of a reversal candle on the daily in combination with bear flags on the intraday playing out on high volume.

Of course I risk the possibility of missing a major gap down, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.