Pete, there is truth in the saying "diversification is the only free lunch," given market and sector rotation. I do not have the time or energy to try and catch tops and bottoms, so I prefer to tuck away a chunk of core shares and remain diversified.

In my view the market is irrational, and I can never be sure when a turn will occur, nor what might trigger it. It is this inherent unpredictability that keeps me from being a more active trader. (I along with many others thought CTIX would be in the 2's by now, alas).

One good example of current unpredictability is JBI, Inc. which has been spiking on no news. Imo, no company's stock is safe or predictable. The name of the game is mitigation of risk.