Yes, that's the theory. Or rather the reality. The market (direction & volume) is *sometimes* giving the clue to what the insiders know. Even without outright corruption, it is hard to keep secrets. It is so easy to convince ourselves the opposite, while the price action is really giving clues to the contrary.

We see a lot of that front-running sort of thing with P&D pennies as well, then the hype comes in. With these early bio-techs at least the dream is often real, even if the result is unknown.

The funny thing being, even when the news is good, there could be a sell the news event. Like this last conference. (Or maybe "sell the update" as opposed to real news) Also the direction and volume can be emotional, hype based. So I guess luck is pretty crucial as well, also intuition.

But really, at the end of the day with all this stock speculation, other than someone actually having the illegal inside track, it is all just fortunetelling and gambling is it not?