The Jobs Report 2014 Economic

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Posted On: 01/10/2014 8:00:05 AM

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The Jobs Report

2014 Economic Calendar

Resource Center » U.S. & Intl Recaps | Event Release Dates | Event Definitions | Today's Calendar

Employment Situation

Released On 1/10/2014 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2013

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change	203,000	200,000	120,000 to 225,000
Unemployment Rate - Level	7.0 %	7.0 %	6.9 % to 7.1 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change	0.2 %	0.2 %	0.1 % to 0.3 %
Av Workweek - All Employees	34.5 hrs	34.5 hrs	34.4 hrs to 34.6 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change	196,000	189,000	120,000 to 220,000

Market Consensus before announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in November advanced 203,000, following an increase of 200,000 for October and after a gain of 175,000 for September. Private payrolls expanded 196,000 after gaining 214,000 in October. The unemployment rate dropped to 7.0 percent from 7.3 percent in October. The November number was the lowest in five years. Wage growth posted at 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent rise in October. The average workweek nudged up to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours.

Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers. Why Investors Care

During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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2014 Release Schedule