Goldman Sachs Predicts Weak Q4 Earnings for Exxon Mobil Corporation

Goldman Sachs Raises Concerns Over Exxon's Future Earnings

Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta recently shared his thoughts regarding Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) and their upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report. The projections suggest a downward trajectory for the oil company’s profits, primarily attributed to fluctuating oil prices and weakened performance in their upstream and chemical sectors. This situation creates an environment of uncertainty for investors eager to understand the company’s potential financial outlook.

Projected Downturn in Upstream Earnings

The analysis indicates that Exxon anticipates a reduction in upstream earnings ranging from $(0.9) billion to $(0.5) billion quarter-over-quarter. Such declines are concerning, especially in the context of the oil industry's inherent volatility. This projection underscores not only the unpredictability of oil prices but also the broader challenges facing Exxon and its operations in the current economic landscape.

The Impact of Gas Prices

Interestingly, while oil prices are projected to negatively impact upstream results, changes in gas prices are anticipated to have a more subdued effect. The forecasts suggest that gas price variations may influence upstream earnings within a band from $0.0 billion to $0.4 billion, indicating a potential stabilizing factor amid broader market fluctuations.

Variations in Industry Margins

Moreover, Exxon Mobil is bracing for variations in industry margins that could affect its earnings across several key segments. Industry margin fluctuations are expected to adversely affect energy products earnings somewhere between $(0.7) billion and $(0.3) billion. Additionally, specialty products earnings may experience a decline ranging from $(0.1) billion to $0.1 billion, while chemical products earnings could fall between $(0.5) billion and $(0.3) billion.

Market Expectations and Analyst Insights

Mehta notes that the implied earnings per share (EPS) at the midpoint is approximately $1.50, which falls below their own estimate of $1.80 and the overall consensus average of $1.76 reported by FactSet. This deviation raises concerns, particularly given the backdrop of seemingly weak results across Exxon's Upstream, Downstream, and Chemicals segments.

Specific Segment Earnings Analysis

Diving deeper into the specifics, implied upstream earnings at the midpoint stand at around $5.7 billion—significantly lower than the analyst's estimate projected at approximately $6.2 billion. The fall in expected upstream earnings is a red flag, suggesting underlying issues that need to be addressed as the company navigates a challenging market environment.

Exxon's Downstream and Chemical Performance

Considering downstream operations, implied earnings including Energy and Specialty Products are projected to be around $1.0 billion at the midpoint, again falling short of the anticipated $1.4 billion. Furthermore, the forecast for chemical earnings indicates an expected total of approximately $493 million, contrasting with an estimate of $853 million, further highlighting the risks involved.

Neutral Rating and Price Target

Due to these preceding insights, Goldman Sachs has listed the company with a Neutral rating and established a price target of $125 for XOM. Such ratings often signal caution among analysts regarding future performance, and this outlook merits close attention from investors. They should consider how ongoing changes in the global energy landscape could impact Exxon's earnings potential.

Investment Opportunities in Energy Sector

For investors looking to gain exposure to Exxon Mobil, there are a couple of investment vehicles available, including Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and SPDR Select Sector Fund – Energy Select Sector (XLE). These options may provide diversified exposure across the energy sector, which could be worthwhile in light of recent earnings projections.

Current Stock Performance

In terms of current stock performance, XOM shares have seen a decrease of 2.43%, settling at $106.11 based on recent evaluations. The market's reaction to the anticipated earnings forecast showcases the volatility associated with the oil and gas sector, where share prices can sway significantly based on predicted performance outcomes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are Goldman Sachs' predictions for Exxon's Q4 earnings?

Goldman Sachs predicts a decline in Exxon's Q4 upstream earnings by $(0.9) billion to $(0.5) billion due to changes in oil prices.

How do gas prices affect Exxon's earnings?

Gas prices are expected to have a moderate influence on upstream earnings, projected between $0.0 billion and $0.4 billion.

What is Exxon's overall earnings outlook according to the analyst?

The implied EPS is projected at around $1.50, below the estimates of both Goldman Sachs and FactSet, indicating weaker expected performance.

Is Exxon Mobil a good investment according to Goldman Sachs?

Goldman Sachs has given Exxon a Neutral rating with a price target of $125, suggesting a cautious approach for investors.

What ETFs offer exposure to Exxon Mobil?

Investors can consider Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and SPDR Select Sector Fund – Energy Select Sector (XLE) for exposure to Exxon Mobil.

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