Bitcoin ETFs: A Market in Flux
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, better known as IBIT, opened 2024 with momentum and high hopes. That early strength has cooled. Even with a year-to-date gain of 22.08%, the fund is down 20.94% over the last six months, pushing many investors to reassess how and where they want Bitcoin exposure.
Launched on January 11, IBIT enjoyed a fast start as fresh capital and headlines flowed in. Since then, the initial excitement around Bitcoin ETFs has eased, and with it, some confidence. That slowdown is raising a familiar question: did investors pick the right vehicle for this part of the cycle?
What Critics and Supporters Are Saying
Longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has amplified those doubts, noting that IBIT has gained less than 17% since inception. He contrasts that with gold ETFs such as SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), which climbed 24% despite softer sentiment. The comparison isn’t subtle, and neither is the message: in his view, some investors may have bet on the wrong horse.
Schiff’s take resonates with skeptics, but it’s not the only lens. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, remains upbeat, pointing to what he describes as unprecedented adoption among investment advisors. Both statements can be true at once: strong interest building on one side, mixed near-term results on the other.
Adoption, Flows, and the Competitive Landscape
On the adoption front, Hougan’s stance reflects ongoing traction within advisory channels, where standardized products like ETFs can fit neatly into portfolios. At the same time, significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have to compete for attention—and capital—with even larger allocations to other assets. That backdrop can blunt the headline impact of Bitcoin ETF demand, even when it’s meaningful in isolation.
IBIT Through a Technical Lens
Technically, IBIT’s picture leans bearish for now. The fund is trading below its five, 20, and 50-day exponential moving averages, a setup that often signals sellers remain in control. At $32.58, the price is hovering near its eight-day simple moving average but still sits beneath the 20-day SMA at $33.67 and the 50-day SMA at $34.59. In plain terms: rallies have struggled to stick.
Momentum gauges back that up. The MACD sits at a negative 0.76, indicating downside pressure hasn’t fully let up. The Relative Strength Index is 45.28—neither oversold nor overbought—which suggests the market hasn’t yet flashed a clear reversal signal. It’s a wait-and-see readout, with a slight tilt lower.
Outlook and Sentiment: Near-Term Caution
Bollinger Bands place IBIT near the lower edge of its recent range, reinforcing the cautious tone. With scrutiny of Bitcoin ETFs intensifying, investors should be prepared for choppy sessions as the story develops.
Whether IBIT can reclaim its footing—or whether Schiff’s “wrong horse” quip gains more traction—remains an open question. For now, attention stays high, positions get rechecked, and the next move matters. The takeaway is simple enough: patience, plus a clear plan, beats guessing the next headline.
Frequently Asked Questions
How has IBIT performed so far in 2024?
IBIT is up 22.08% year to date, but it’s down 20.94% over the past six months, reflecting a strong start followed by a notable pullback.
What is Peter Schiff’s view, and how does it compare to gold?
Peter Schiff argues that Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT have underdelivered, pointing out IBIT’s gain of less than 17% since launch. He contrasts that with GLD’s 24% rise over the same span.
What do the current technical indicators suggest for IBIT?
IBIT is trading below its five, 20, and 50-day EMAs. Price sits near $32.58, below the 20-day SMA at $33.67 and the 50-day SMA at $34.59. A MACD of -0.76 hints at lingering downside pressure, while an RSI of 45.28 is neutral.
Are Bitcoin ETFs actually being adopted by advisors?
Yes. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says adoption among investment advisors is unprecedented, even if larger flows into other assets can overshadow the headline impact.
What should investors watch in the near term?
Keep an eye on price relative to key moving averages, the MACD’s direction, and whether IBIT remains near the lower Bollinger Band. Those cues, combined with sentiment shifts, can help frame risk and timing without overreacting to noise.
