Pre-Close Newsletter Insights for Tryg A/S
As we approach the release of Q4 2025 results, Tryg A/S is preparing for a series of pre-close analyst calls and meetings. These sessions commence on December 17, allowing investors and market participants to get insights into the factors influencing the company’s recent performance before the official results are announced on January 22, 2026.
Understanding Insurance Revenue Growth
In terms of insurance revenue, Tryg A/S has showcased a balanced performance across Scandinavia. Approximately 50% of its insurance revenue originates from Denmark, while Sweden contributes around 30%, and Norway accounts for about 20%. In Q4 2024, Tryg recorded impressive insurance revenue totaling DKK 9,734 million.
The company is witnessing steady revenue growth, maintaining a trajectory that aligns with past performance. During Q3 2025, Tryg reported a local currency growth rate of 4.0%, slightly adjusted for a one-off impact of around DKK 50 million reported in Q3 2024.
Moreover, the translation of earnings from local currencies into DKK indicates that the anticipated average value of SEK 100 translates to DKK 68.0, compared to 65.0 in Q4 2024. Similarly, NOK 100 is expected to equate to DKK 63.7, a slight increase from 63.3 reported in the previous year.
Claims Environment and Underlying Development
Tryg A/S operates within a stable claims environment, and the recent trends provide reliable indicators regarding short-term expectations. The Group's underlying claims ratio stands at 69.3% as of Q4 2024. During the Capital Markets Day (CMD) held in early December 2024, the company indicated that it anticipates either a stable or slightly improved underlying performance throughout the strategic period leading up to 2027.
In Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025, there was a notable improvement in the underlying claims ratio, with a cumulative enhancement of 30 basis points seen over the three quarters. The private sector witnessed an improvement of 10 basis points in Q1, followed by 20 basis points in Q2, and another 30 basis points in Q3.
Weather Impact and Large Claims Overview
For the fourth quarter, it is anticipated that normalized weather claims will constitute about 30% of the annual guidance of DKK 800 million, which translates to DKK 240 million. To clarify the seasonal distribution, the annual guidance for weather claims is segmented as follows: 40% in Q1, 10% in Q2, 20% in Q3, and concluding with 30% in Q4. Consequently, the total expectations for weather and large claims remain well-aligned with the established guidance for this quarter.
Interest Rates and Investment Activities
The discount rate for Q4 is projected to be approximately 2.4%, with this figure remaining consistent with the previous quarter. Moreover, looking towards 2027, a long-term run-off expectation of roughly 2% has been articulated.
Regarding investment routines, Tryg has structured its investments into a match portfolio worth about DKK 45 billion and a free portfolio valued at DKK 14 billion as of Q3 2025. Recent adjustments include derisking the free portfolio, which now mainly consists of Scandinavian covered bonds and government securities, alongside a real estate portfolio that amounts to approximately DKK 3 billion. In October 2025, a further divestment of real estate worth roughly DKK 500 million was undertaken to streamline performance.
Return Expectations
The match portfolio is expected to yield returns primarily through premium provisions, estimated at DKK 50 million for each quarter under the prevailing interest conditions. Additionally, the line for ‘Other financial income and expenses’ is forecasted to reach DKK -75 million per quarter, encompassing costs associated with currency hedging and the functionalities of the investment operations.
Financial Expectations and Solvency Position
Further financial adjustments indicate that other income and costs are expected to range between DKK -350 million and DKK -370 million quarterly, largely attributed to the amortization of intangibles from the RSA Scandinavia acquisition. Due to the strengthening of SEK this year, which has generally benefited the insurance service result, there are additional FX-related impacts of approximately DKK 15 million included in the forward guidance.
On November 11, 2025, Tryg introduced a new Restricted Tier 1 (RT1) capital instrument worth SEK 1 billion while also repurchasing about 70% of an existing RT1 capital instrument with the same nominal value. This strategic move is expected to enhance the solvency position as we approach the end of Q4 2025, providing a net positive impact of around SEK 300 million, equating to approximately 3 percentage points added to the solvency ratio.
Outlook and Future Expectations
Tryg reported in the 2024 annual report an insurance service result of around DKK 7.2 billion, with a forward target for 2027 set to achieve between DKK 8.0 billion and DKK 8.4 billion—possibly its most profitable service outcome yet. The gradual increase in the insurance service result is projected to align smoothly with the strategic plan in the years to come.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the purpose of the pre-close newsletter?
The pre-close newsletter serves to inform investors and analysts about key factors that may influence Tryg's financial performance before publishing the Q4 results.
When will Tryg publish its Q4 results?
Tryg is expected to publish its Q4 results on January 22, 2026.
How does Tryg manage its claims ratio?
Tryg monitors its underlying claims ratio closely and implements strategic adjustments to improve performance, as seen in recent quarterly updates.
What is the significance of the discount rate?
The discount rate impacts the valuation of claims and reserve funding; Tryg's current rate is approximately 2.4% for Q4.
How does Tryg plan to improve its service results?
By focusing on strategic growth areas and managing costs, Tryg aims to increase its insurance service results steadily through 2027.
