Leading Economic Index Reports Decline for Two Months
The Conference Board has reported that the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US experienced a decline of 0.3% in November 2025, falling to 97.9 (2016=100). This followed a slight decrease of 0.1% in October, which brought the index down from 98.3 in September. Analyzing the wider trend, the LEI showed an overall reduction of 1.2% over the six-month period from May to November 2025. Interestingly, this decline is considerably less severe compared to the previous six-month contraction of 2.6% experienced from November 2024 to May 2025.
Insights from Economic Experts
Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, a Senior Manager specializing in Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, stated, "Throughout 2025, weak consumer expectations have largely influenced the decrease in the LEI, with new orders following suit. Notably, the remaining components reflected muted movements in November, although labor market indicators such as initial claims for unemployment insurance and weekly hours worked in manufacturing offered some positive signs. Despite robust GDP growth reported at 4.4% for Q3 2025, the LEI suggests that the US economy may be headed for a slowdown in 2026."
Coincident Economic Index Shows Positive Growth
On a different note, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the US increased by 0.3% in November, reaching 115.0 (2016=100). This increase marks a recovery from a series of declines recorded in August, September, and October, where the index dipped by 0.1% each month. Over the last six months from May to November 2025, the CEI saw an uptick of 0.3%, a slight decrease from its previous growth of 0.9% during the prior six-month timeframe from November 2024 to May 2025.
Analyzing the Four Component Indicators
The CEI’s performance is based on four main indicators: payroll employment, personal income excluding transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production. November's figures showed improvement across all these components compared to a softer reading in October. Notably, The Conference Board provided estimates for the rise in manufacturing and trade sales for the month of November.
Lagging Economic Index Also Records A Slight Increase
The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the US saw a minor increase of 0.1%, bringing it to 119.7 (2016=100) in November 2025, following a 0.1% decrease in October. When observing the six-month trajectory from May to November 2025, the LAG experienced a slight decline of 0.1%, which somewhat reverses the 0.9% gain noted during the preceding six months.
Annual Revisions to Economic Benchmarks
In noteworthy news, the release timeline for the annual benchmark revisions concerning Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) composite economic indexes is undergoing changes. The release will now take place in June instead of January starting in 2026. This adjustment will ensure an inclusive sample period that reflects the most current completed calendar year data of the components from which the LEI and CEI are calculated.
This timeline change also shifts the cutoff for integrating source data revisions into the benchmark process:
- For the forthcoming benchmark revision set for June 2026, December 2025 will be the cutoff point for the standardization factors and trend adjustments, instead of December 2024.
- This change will enable volatility calculations and factor updates to be more comprehensive before the annual recalculation of historical composite indexes is carried out.
Looking Ahead: Future Releases
The next release of economic indicators will be announced promptly, pending updates from the Census Bureau. As these indexes are pivotal for understanding the directional trends of the economy, stakeholders and analysts are encouraged to monitor the developments closely.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Leading Economic Index (LEI)?
The LEI is a predictive tool designed to forecast turning points in the business cycle by assessing multiple economic indicators.
How did the LEI perform in recent months?
The LEI fell by 0.3% in November after a 0.1% decline in October, indicating a slight downturn.
What does the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) indicate?
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and showed a 0.3% increase in November, demonstrating some recovery.
Why is the timing of economic revisions changing?
To better incorporate the most recent data, the release of annual BCI benchmark revisions will shift to June.
What are the implications of these indexes moving forward?
These economic indicators will be crucial for understanding and anticipating shifts in the US economic landscape.
