Singapore’s 2024 Outlook Brightens
Economists have nudged up their expectations for Singapore’s growth in 2024. Confidence has improved after a survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), with many respondents pointing to stronger external demand as a key driver behind the better outlook.
What the Latest MAS Survey Shows
In the September survey of 21 economists, the median forecast for 2024 growth rose to 2.6%. That’s an increase from the 2.4% median recorded in the March and June rounds. Forecasts for 2025 are unchanged, with a median of 2.5% growth.
Why Forecasts Moved Higher
Most economists do not expect any change to the MAS policy framework at its October review. They also see year-on-year growth holding at about 2.6% in the third quarter of this year. The September survey highlighted firmer expectations across several areas—finance, insurance, construction, and wholesale and retail trade—suggesting a broader base for the pickup.
Trade Ministry’s Update to the GDP Range
Last month, the trade ministry lifted its 2024 GDP growth range to 2.0%–3.0%, up from 1.0%–3.0%. The shift followed a stronger-than-expected second quarter, when GDP expanded by 2.9%, beating market forecasts.
Inflation Is Easing
Inflation projections have also edged down. The median forecast for headline inflation in 2024 is now 2.6%, compared with 2.8% in the June survey. The median projection for core inflation has been trimmed as well, to 2.9% from 3.0% previously.
Core Inflation: Where It Stands Now
Core inflation slowed to 2.5% in July—the slowest annual increase in more than two years. MAS expects core inflation to ease further in the last quarter of the year. For 2024 as a whole, the central bank’s estimate remains in a 2.5%–3.5% range.
Monetary Policy Stance
MAS kept policy unchanged at its July meeting, maintaining a stance that has been in place since the tightening move in October 2022. With growth risks still on the radar, the central bank is taking a cautious approach and signaling no urgency to adjust settings.
Conclusion
Put together, the survey upgrades, the trade ministry’s revised range, and the cooling in inflation point to a steadier path ahead. External demand and a few key sectors are doing more of the lifting, while policy makers watch the data and move carefully. It’s not a sprint; it’s a measured recovery—one that still leaves room for patience.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the revised growth forecast for Singapore in 2024?
The latest MAS survey pegs the median 2024 growth forecast at 2.6%, up from 2.4% in the March and June surveys.
Which sectors are driving the improved outlook?
Economists cited stronger expectations in finance, insurance, construction, and wholesale and retail trade in the September survey.
What’s the trade ministry’s latest GDP range for 2024?
The ministry now projects growth between 2.0% and 3.0% for 2024, raised from an earlier 1.0% to 3.0% range after a 2.9% GDP print in the second quarter.
How are inflation trends evolving this year?
The median forecast for headline inflation in 2024 is 2.6%, with core inflation at 2.9%. Core inflation slowed to 2.5% in July, and MAS expects it to ease further in the last quarter.
Will MAS change its policy stance in the near term?
Most economists don’t expect changes at the October review. MAS kept policy unchanged in July and hasn’t adjusted settings since a tightening in October 2022.
