Allianz Trade Forecasts Modest Global Trade Recovery
According to Allianz Trade, a prominent trade credit insurer, global trade is set to experience a moderate rebound in the coming years. The forecast suggests a growth of +3.6% in volume for 2024, driven primarily by companies replenishing stock and consumers once again purchasing durable goods, albeit with a reduction in services spending.
Factors Fueling Trade Growth in 2024
One interesting aspect of this growth is the anticipated rush by companies to ship goods in response to potentially higher tariffs expected under the next US administration. This increased shipping activity is expected to provide a significant boost to global trade as businesses brace themselves against possible disruptions.
Expectations for Subsequent Years
Looking ahead, Allianz Trade projects that global trade volume growth will slow slightly to +2.8% in 2025 and +2.3% in 2026. While this indicates a continuation of growth, it also reflects the impacts of renewed trade tensions that could become more pronounced in later years. Similarly, the deflationary trends observed since 2023 are expected to persist, impacting export prices in USD terms.
Impact of Exporter Strategies
To maintain market shares amidst rising tariffs, exporters may absorb some of these costs, contributing to even lower growth expectations in USD value terms. Thus, the forecasts for 2025 suggest growth of only +2.3% in USD, marking a significant adjustment due to these economic factors.
Marine and Air Cargo Performance Trends
Allianz’s report highlights the growing trend of frontloading among exporters, particularly noticeable in marine cargo. Recent statistics revealed a 6.7% increase in Chinese exports on a year-on-year basis, notably due to increased demand from the US.
U.S. Imports Surge
US imports from China have surged, reflecting an average increase of 10.4% year-on-year from July to September. Certain consumer goods, previously at risk of a tariff increase to 7.5%, are demonstrating remarkable resilience, showing almost a 20% yearly growth during this period.
Seasonal Trends and E-Commerce Growth
The holiday season typically marks a peak time for international cargo demand. Recent data indicates that air cargo demand rose by 9.8% year-on-year in November, continuing a streak of increasing demand.
E-Commerce Effects on Cargo Volume
Besides seasonal factors, the growth of e-commerce is significantly benefiting cargo airlines. For instance, data from China revealed that air cargo volumes soared to historic highs in early December, driven by a notable increase in international shipments.
Final Thoughts and Full Report Availability
In summary, the outlook for global trade remains cautiously optimistic. Companies are navigating both external pressures and shifting consumer behaviors to adapt to an evolving market landscape. For those interested in a deep dive into these trends, Allianz Trade has published a full report detailing these findings and forecasts.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the expected growth rate for global trade in 2024?
Allianz Trade expects global trade to grow by +3.6% in volume during 2024.
What factors are influencing global trade growth?
Key factors include companies restocking, consumer demand for durable goods, and impending tariff changes.
How might tariffs impact trade performance?
Tariffs could lead to frontloading shipments, with exporters absorbing some costs to maintain market share.
What trends were noted in marine cargo data?
The data show a rise in shipments, with Chinese exports increasing by 6.7% year-on-year, influenced by US demand.
How does e-commerce affect air cargo demand?
Rising e-commerce has resulted in increased demand for air cargo, notably as reflected in high volumes during the holiday season.
