Sales Trends and Insights for the Automotive Market
The Total Sales Forecast for September 2024
For September 2024, the projection suggests a total of 1,164,900 new vehicle sales, marking a 1.8% decline compared to the same month last year. An adjustment for the selling days reveals a decrease attributed to 23 selling days this September, down from 26 in September 2023, which indicates a more substantial decline of 13.2% without the adjustment.
Analyzing Retail Sales
Retail sales of new vehicles are expected to reach 960,500 units in September, showing a notable decrease of 3.9% on an adjusted basis compared to the previous year. Without adjusting for selling days, the decrease stands at 15% from September 2023. Additionally, retail sales in Q3 2024 are projected at 3,263,500 units, reflecting a minimal increase of 1.4% despite having fewer selling days.
Key Insights from J.D. Power
Thomas King, president of J.D. Power's analytics division, commented on the sales forecast, noting that the decline in September sales stems from the overlapping of the Labor Day holiday with August’s figures. This timing adjusted sales patterns significantly, increasing August sales while hindering September's results.
Current Inventory Trends
With retail inventory expected to be 1.8 million units—a 6.2% increase from August and a substantial 30.7% rise from last September—there are more opportunities for buyers to leverage discounts provided by both manufacturers and retailers. However, this inventory situation varies across different brands and models, with a few popular vehicles remaining scarce.
Affordability in the Automotive Market
As the average retail transaction price for new vehicles trends downward, now at $44,467, it signifies a decrease of $1,296 (2.8%) compared to September of last year. This trend results from escalating manufacturer incentives, retailer discounts, and a greater availability of lower-priced vehicles.
Projected Spending on New Vehicles
This month, J.D. Power forecasts that consumers are set to spend close to $40.4 billion on new vehicle purchases—a decline of 16.8% from the prior year. With the average profit per unit expected at $2,294, this is a staggering drop of 29% from September 2023, further highlighting the impact of rising inventories.
Sales & SAAR Overview
A summary of retail and total sales underscores the adjustments necessary for effective market assessment. The retail sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) stands at 13.3 million units, reflective of market fluctuations, while total sales SAAR stabilizes at 15.8 million units.
Leasing and Financing Perspectives
Leasing has once again become a focus, accounting for approximately 21.8% of retail sales. A rise in interest rates has resulted in average monthly finance payments reaching $734, up by $11 from the prior year. However, this comes alongside a drop in average used-vehicle retail prices, now at $28,465, a decrease of 3.2% compared to last September.
Electric Vehicle Market Insights
The attention on electric vehicles (EVs) reflects shifting consumer behavior, as interest among new vehicle shoppers has decreased to just 21.7%, a noticeable drop from last year. Despite this, EV sales share has recently held steady at 9.4%, driven largely by attractive incentives and discounted transaction prices.
Global Market Dynamics
Looking into global automotive trends, August indicated a stable selling rate, currently at 89.3 million units. However, ongoing challenges remain with various regions experiencing differing demand levels. North America and Europe remain influential yet face challenges in sales growth as they compare year-over-year.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the projected total new vehicle sales for September 2024?
Total new vehicle sales are projected to reach 1,164,900 units, reflecting a decrease from the previous year.
What are the retail sales expectations for new vehicles in September 2024?
Retail new vehicle sales are expected to hit 960,500 units, which is a decrease of 3.9% from September 2023.
How has the average transaction price changed over the past year?
The average transaction price for new vehicles has decreased to $44,467, down 2.8% from last September.
What trends are observed in the electric vehicle market?
Interest in EVs has dropped to 21.7% among new vehicle shoppers, despite EV sales maintaining a share of 9.4%.
How is the global automotive market performing?
The global light-vehicle selling rate remained steady, but variations in markets such as North America and Europe are impacting overall sales performance.
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